Perhaps the most unexpected of political comebacks — or a dead cert depending on how you viewed it — has brought America to something of a crossroads. Progressives highlight the need for immigration and highlight the benefits, conservatives post videos online of large groups walking directly across the southern border. In the AI age it can be hard to separate fact from fiction and that quickly leads to everyone throwing out any opinion or fact that doesn’t align with their own position. We’re going to cut through the noise with an impartial look at what happened in the first Trump Whitehouse and what he is saying he will do now.
The power of executive orders
Trump used executive orders when he was the 45th president to shut down the borders to a number of majority muslim countries. He did so in a blanket way that appeared to cause chaos on the ground and uncertainty amongst many, and yet he still went through with a policy many opponents thought was bombast. What do we take from this? That Trump is a president who believes strongly in what he says and is prepared to follow through with it.
Put aside whether or not you voted for him as the 47th president and instead remember that he largely does what he says. We may not always be in complete unity as a nation on such a hot topic as immigration, but that doesn’t mean we have to throw out everything he says as a lie. He has said he will tackle immigration head-on, and we can expect him to make a marked attempt to do so in his first week back in the Oval Office.
A bold number that remains disputed
No one seems to be able to agree on the number of illegal entries in the US that have happened under Biden, which in itself is a worry. But we should also remember that this is nothing new — politicians will always throw out seemingly conflicting figures in an attempt to win a larger war against their adversaries. What’s different here is that Trump and Vance have spoken publicly about starting with the first one million illegal entrants and going from there.
They are looking to end any talk of an amnesty or rights to citizenship and instead push the issue, as they see it, back across the border. How this will done remains to be seen but it’s the simple act of setting a target number that will ensure action is taken quickly. Trump is, at heart, a patriotic businessman who believes what he is doing is best for the America he loves. His attempts to build his border wall — and succeeding in adding hundreds of miles of it — is testament to his followthrough.
The impact on the economy
There’s a lot of talk in Texas about what Trump’s proposed stance on immigration will mean for the wider economy across the state. Trump is fond of telling anyone who will listen that he had the strongest economy the world had ever seen, only for COVID to knock him off track. While we will never know what may have happened during his first time if the outbreak hadn’t occurred, we will surely get to see what happens second time around.
Trump’s passion for business and love of economic tariffs shows that this is a president who is chiefly focused on using his time in the Oval Office to make the economy grow. He understands business and sees American as the world’s ultimate company. His determination to drive down illegal immigration numbers will not come at the expense of the economy, but how will this be possible?
Many progressives cite immigration as essential for filling lower paying, lower skilled roles that many American citizens simply don’t want to fill. These types of arguments are not without foundation and are also made by the leftwing right across Europe. While we should not dismiss them out of hand, we should take them with a pinch of salt if looking at it from Trump’s point of view. He will counter with how Americans deserve higher skilled manufacturing jobs to come back into their country so they are no longer undercut and priced out of the market by China, Brazil, and Mexico. This is what completes the circle as far as he is concerned.
Legal immigration as a tool for growth
Immigration is one of those highly complex and deeply nuanced issues that it is hard to get full agreement on. While anyone can find the highest rated video on IMDB, the most viral post on Instagram, or the latest game on Casino Guru, no one can quickly determine the optimal immigration policy. There are so many more factors at play that you have to consider. Two of the most important are public perception and corporate trust.
Trump’s team will tell you that they are going to bring billions of dollars of manufacturing back into the US by using tariffs, but they will also tell you immigration plays a part. Skilled workers coming in legally and in a controlled manner will be a major driver of their push for more manufacturing. They will also highlight — not without reason — the impact of the mere perception of uncontrolled illegal immigration. Regardless of the real numbers, they will argue, if businesses think they are building plants in states where there is a breakdown of law and order, they won’t stay there for long.
Final thoughts
America is at something of a tipping point after an election in which personalities clashed and personal insults were repeatedly traded. Four years before there was a chaotic handover of power that shone a light on the damage a disputed election result could cause.
Regardless of where we each sit on the political spectrum, we need to come together and make the next four years work so that we can become stronger as a nation.
-In collaboration with Paul Hansen
